Preregistration: Uralic Contact Hypotheses

• make-public
• Given a genomic tracer dye corresponding to Proto-Uralic speakers:
• I predict on the basis of known language shifts and interaction processes that this signal would also be visible in modern speakers of the following non-Uralic languages:
  • Several areal clusters and subclades of Turkic
    • South Siberian
      • Sayan: Tuvan, Tofa, Soyot
      • non-Sayan: Khakas, Shor, Chulym, North Altay
      • South Altay
      • main predicted donor: Southern Samoyeds
        • caveat: possible interpretive ambiguity due to Yeniseian assimilation into these same groups
    • West Siberian 'Tatar': Baraba, Tomsk, Tobol-Irtysh
      • main predicted donors: Ugrians and Samoyeds
    • Volga Basin and Ural regions – Turkic assimilation of and interaction with speakers of multiple Uralic branches (Permic, Mordvinic, Mari, Ugric)
      • Northwestern Turkic
        • predicted maximum signal in Bashkirs followed by Volga Tatars
          • much greater in these two groups than in any other Kipchaks
      • Chuvash (Oghuric)
        • notable "quasi-symbiosis" with Mari
    • Dolgan
      • primary predicted donor: Northern Samoyeds
      • predict stronger signal than in Yakuts due to geographic contiguity with Nganasan, Enets, Nenets
  • Yeniseian, i.e., modern Kets
    • genetic convergence with Selkups (known historical interactants)
  • Indo-European
    • Slavic
      • primary predicted donor: Finnic groups
      • Russians and other East Slavic speakers
        • predicted proportions: Russians (with maximum in Russian North) > Belarusians > Ukrainians
      • not expected in West or South Slavic groups
    • Baltic
      • Latvians and Lithuanians
        • predicted proportions low (fraction of Estonian level)
        • sole predicted donor: Finnic (Estonian and Livonian)
    • Germanic
      • North Germanic
        • predicted proportions low on average but significantly substructured, peaking in far north of Scandinavian peninsula
        • primary predicted donors: Finns (namely, Savonian-speaking Forest Finns) and Sámi
        • West Scandinavian
          • Norwegians (predicted maximum in Finnmark)
            • predicted proportion > Icelanders or Faroese
        • East Scandinavian
          • Swedes (predicted maximum in Norrland)
            • predicted proportion > Danes
      • not expected in Germanic speakers elsewhere
  • Tungusic
    • Evenks, particularly northwestern Evenks
      • primary predicted donor: northern Samoyeds
    • not expected in southern Tungusic groups
  • Yukaghir
    • ongoing debate about whether Yukaghir language genealogically related to Uralic
      • current consensus seems to favor contact scenarios instead
        • most obviously and recent interactions with northern Samoyeds but deeper contacts with Uralic also postulated
  • Mongolic
    • expect minor contribution maximized in Buryats
      • primary predicted donor: Samoyeds
      • caveat: possible interpretive ambiguity due to Yeniseian assimilation into these same groups
    • possible at lower proportions in Central Mongolic speakers from northern Mongolia
    • much less expected in: southern groups (Shirongolic speakers), groups east of Lake Baikal (Khamnigan, Dagur)
• Diagrams
  • {Peyrot, 2019, 79153}, modified
    • 

      • ARROWS
        "Proto-Indo-European"-\>"Pre-Proto-Tocharian"["Afanas'evo?"]
        "Proto-Uralic"-\>"Pre-Proto-Finno-Ugric"
        "Proto-Uralic"-\>"Pre-Proto-Samoyedic"
        "Pre-Proto-Samoyedic"-\>"Proto-Samoyedic"["500BCE – 0?"]
        "Proto-Indo-European"-\>"Pre-Proto-Indo-Iranian"
        "Pre-Proto-Indo-Iranian"-\>"Proto-Indo-Iranian"
        "Proto-Indo-Iranian"-\>Indic
        "Proto-Indo-Iranian"-\>"'Andronovo' (Helimski)"["(hypothetical)"]
        "'Andronovo' (Helimski)"-\>"Proto-Finno-Ugric"["(hypothetical)"]
        "Proto-Indo-Iranian"-\>Iranian
        "Pre-Proto-Tocharian"-\>"Proto-Tocharian"
        "Pre-Proto-Samoyedic"-\>"Proto-Tocharian"["contact in S. Siberia?"]
        "Proto-Tocharian"-\>"Tocharian"
        "Pre-Proto-Finno-Ugric"-\>"Proto-Finno-Ugric"
        

• In progress
  • Possible external connections at greater depth than Proto-Uralic
    • Eskimo-Aleut
  • I predict on the basis of following patterns of signal loss and decoupling in the genetics of present-day Uralic speakers:
    • Attenuation roughly from east to west and north to south
    • Among present-day Uralic speakers, minimal signal in Hungarians
    • Lower signal in Nganasan than in other extant Samoyedic groups due to substantial non-Uralic ancestry [potentially complicated if the substrate population were itself related to pre-proto-Uralic populations]
  • Strong predictions about ancient DNA:
    • Conquest-era Magyar individuals will exhibit a much more pronounced Uralic signal
  • At a lower level of epistemic confidence, anticipation of the following observations in ancient DNA data:
    • Some hypothetically "Indo-Iranian" ancient populations in East Europe and Siberia may exhibit low levels of this signal due to Uralic admixture or even include outlier individuals with pronounced Uralic affinity
    • (If Edward Vajda's hypothesis about an extinct eastern branch of Uralic in Siberia and East Central Asia is correct) There may be evidence for an Uralic signal in at least a subset of Xiongnu